by Christian Wright
I suspect the future path of the independence movement lies outside our ability to influence it. Two factors I believe work in our favour – one is nature taking its course. 75% of those 65 and over voted no. That cohort is of course going to shrink considerably over the next few years. Their replacements are far more YES friendly.
What percentage of the population is 65 and over, and what is 85% (the turnout) of that number? That product is considerably greater than the 200,000 + votes that would change NO to YES. In fact, according to the Scottish government the cohort of those 65 and over comprises 17% of the entire population.
So simply waiting awhile we become the majority by default (I know that is a simplistic outlook but bear with me).
The second external process that will determine whether YES rises again is the machinations of Westminster. If WM delivers anything approaching devo max, YES is going nowhere anytime soon. However, Westminster being what it is, it’s highly unlikely they will. They’ve got form here – centuries of it.
Indeed from the gritted teeth pronouncements of a large swathe of Tory MPs AND many labour MPs, it seems our insolence demands payback. It is certain that in their vengeful way, the establishment are resolved that having enticed the Scottish hound back into its kennel, they are going to beat it.
Reneging on the “vows” and the brutal austerity that will bring, will be the core of Scots resentment and alienation. This, coupled to the other factors discussed above, could increase pressure for a second referendum to an irresistible level in surprisingly short order.
We could easily see pro-indy opinion poll numbers in excess of those in Catalonia. It all depends on just how cosmically dumb Westminster is prepared to be. I have enormous confidence in their infinite capacity for stupidity.
The reality is that on Sept 18 just under half the electorate voted for independence, and just over half voted against it. It will take a swing of just over five points to change last Thursday’s majority NO to YES.
Remember, if at first you don’t secede, try, try, try again.