The forces of Unionism went into overdrive last night to portray a Daily Mail independence referendum poll as evidence that Darling’s “rout” of Salmond in their debate had led to a spectacular rise in the NO vote.
We know that the central premise of this Unionist anti-independence strategy is that if you make a headline big enough and sustain it long enough, any lie can be made truth in the voters minds.
Sceptical of anything postulated by the Daily Mail and Better Together, we ourselves had Christian Wright (@chrstainwright) look into it. Here is his summary followed by his findings as reported on twitter in real time.
While the Daily Mail and BT and the rest of the MSM are screaming what a blow to Salmond and the YES campaign this post-debate poll is, the raw data contradict their headlines. Qelle suprise!
First, well over a third of the sample population didn’t watch the debate at all. The number of avowed NO voters in the weighted population sample outstrips those advocating YES, by a larger margin than one might expect
And most importantly as it relates to the critical cohort of undecided, the poling subgroup who are DK and watched the debate, comprises a weighted value of just 61 souls.
Of that meager 61, 33 did NOT agree that Darling had won the debate. The majority thought either salmond had won or that they could discern no winner.
Daily Mail publishes push poll to prop-up moribund NO campaign. A propaganda exercise by the ultra far-right scandal sheet . . . <analysis>
Well it appears OVER A THIRD of respondents in this Daily Mail poll DIDN’T EVEN WATCH THE DEBATE! DM & BT didn’t tell us that . . . <analysis>
Appears among those poll[ed] who DID watch the debate the largest cohort by some margin were declared NO voters further skewing results . . . <analysis>
OK- DK sample size of those who watched debate, weighted total was only 61 souls. Of that 61, the largest cohort are those saying they DON’T KNOW who won debate (there was no obvious winner) . . . <analysis>
So, turns out a MAJORITY OF undecideds DID NOT THINK DARLING WON THE DEBATE! Of the 61 weighted sample of DKs 33 did not and 28 did.
This survation poll’s results are consistent with the view that among undecideds, Darling did not win the debate with Salmond.