The Great Ungluing Begins

The No Campaign is in crisis mode today as it reels from two body blows.

The Dodgy Memo

In response to a freedom of information request, the Treasury revealed it had no record detailing the provenance of the Permanent Secretary’s (Sir Nicholas Macpherson) advice to the Chancellor on the matter of currency union with Scotland.Parliament Is Recalled To Pay Respects To Former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher Who Died On Monday

And it seems that Sir Nick cannot recall when he first broached the matter with his boss, nor indeed can he detail the development of the involved process that culminated in the dramatic declaration in his memo to the Chancellor of February 11.

The less charitable may think it odd that there is no paper trail and that neither the Chancellor nor Sir Nick can remember the dates or circumstances of any of the meetings that led to the conclusion that establishing a currency union with Scotland would be far too dangerous an undertaking. more here

Of course this new information is consistent with the charge in the Guardian article of last week that the whole thing was a dog and pony show concocted by Darling and Dunlop.  “Alistair and Andrew are running the show – we just did what they said,” one Treasury source said.

Christian Wright says:

This is yet more evidence of the serious fraud these mendacious empty suits and their bumbling bureaucrats have perpetrated upon the Scottish people.

Our Westminster masters have been exposed as incompetent bungling chancers who have lied and lied, and lied again, to frighten our people and coerce them into voting NO.

The Gathering Storm

And as the clouds darken over camp NO, another body blow in the form of a sensational panelbase poll published by the Times and commissioned by WOS, indicates that the two sides are now “almost neck and neck” with five months to go before the ballots are cast.Times poll

Comparing the results with the last panelbase poll they commissioned, expert detailed analysis by Wings reveals that:

“… 27% of the Labour voters … said they’d be voting Yes, compared to just 19% last time. [and] among Conservatives – 12% now say they’ll vote Yes, against just 1% five months ago.”

“Finally, the numbers across different social grades are fascinating and surprising. No leads in both – by 8% among ABC1 voters and 2% among C2DE voters. Last October the figures showed a huge 24-point No lead in ABC1 but a 6-point Yes lead in C2DE.”

 

WHAT THEY WERE SAYING A YEAR AGO (or less)

“The debate will go on in the sense there is a large number of wounded still to be bayoneted … the BBC will continue its campaign. But effectively I get the impression that throughout the country, people have already decided.” Ian Davidson in the Times October 18 2013

DAVID CAMERON’S Government believes it has already won the battle over Scottish independence 14 months before the referendum.

Senior Coalition sources claim the only question left is how small the Yes vote will be on September 18, 2014.

They claim any narrowing of the polls between now and then will be because of “protest votes”, not any genuine increase in support for Scotland leaving the UK. Herald Monday 15 July 2013

Scots still oppose independence by around two to one – a ratio that has remained constant for the last 20 years, give or take the occasional poll giving independence a marginal and transitory lead.

It’s hard to look at the evidence and not conclude that the Yes campaign has lost even before the campaign has started. Labour and the Better Together campaign are already awarding themselves battle honours and talking of getting three million No votes. Ian McWhirter Jan 2013

The Yes campaign has “virtually no chance” of victory in next year’s referendum on Scottish independence, according to one of America’s most-respected polling experts.

Nate Silver, the award-winning statistician who shot to fame when he correctly predicted the outcome of all 50 states in the 2012 US presidential elections, says all the indicators point towards Scots voting to stay in the UK on 18 September next year.

Only a “major crisis” south of the Border could turn the situation in favour of independence, despite it being more than a year until polling day, he added. In an interview with The Scotsman, Mr Silver said polling data was “pretty definitive”. “There’s virtually no chance that the Yes side will win”, he said. “If you look at the polls, it’s pretty definitive really where the No side is at 60-55 per cent and Yes side is about 40 or so.

“Historically, in any Yes or No vote in a referendum, it’s actually the No side that tends to grow over time, people tend not to default to changing the status quo. “The No side is even more dominant with the younger voters, so there’s not going to be any generational thing going on.”  Scotsman Aug 13 2013 Nate Silver

 

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